Catch-up TV services, streaming films from Lovefilm and Netflix and live sport
from Sky could be brought together to create an a la carte television
offering. Certainly, it's unlikely to deliver everything and that will put
off lots of viewers. The current offering of films and TV shows for British
Apple TV users, for example, is far less comprehensive than it could be.
However, releasing a TV would encourage more providers to make their content
available. I feel quite sure that this is what's coming. The only thing I'm
not sure about is that it's coming in 2012. Even late 2012 might be too
early for such a bold product. We'll see.
2. Kindle Fire lands in Britain
Amazon launched the Kindle Fire in the US at the end of 2011. Despite some
mixed reviews, the budget tablet has been selling well - at least,
according to the limited information that the online bookseller has made
available. We had to wait a long time before the Kindle ereader was released
in Britain but it's a fairly safe bet that we will see the Kindle Fire here
before the end of 2012.
As production ramps up, it's possible that Amazon could be ready to expand
outside the US in the spring but it's more likely that the Kindle Fire will
launch internationally in the autumn, ready for the Christmas boom.
There's also a good chance that there will be a new version of the Kindle Fire
by then - either a second, larger tablet or an improved version of the
original. Amazon has a good record of improving the Kindle with each
generation, so there's a good chance that British buyers will be getting a
better product than the one which has launched this year in America.
3. YouView finally launches
Next year YouView, the long-awaited internet connected TV set top box from the
BBC, ITV, Channel 4, Five, BT, Arqiva, and TalkTalk, is finally expected to
make its much
overdue debut.
It had been billed to launch in 2010, but has been best with delays due to
technical glitches.
This year Lord Alan Sugar was brought on board to ferry the process along and
get the boxes onto shop shelves. The proposition, self-styled as the next
generation of Freeview, is meant to be a well executed product – but it
remains to be seen what consumer appetite there is for YouView.
4. Google+ fails as a social network
Google+ is unlikely to beat Facebook as the world’s leading social network
anytime during 2012. Plus after Facebook’s highly anticipated $100bn
float, it will have a major war chest to invest in the site and spend on
improving its reach.
In 2012 Google+ is more likely to become another feature of the Google suite
of web products, rather than a killer social network which can rival
Facebook’s dominance.
Certain Google+ features, such as ‘Circles’, are likely to be fun additions to
the way people communicate and share certain bits of information on
Google-owned sites, such as YouTube. However, it is highly unlikely that
Facebook will have to worry about a major rival in the form of Google+ next
year.
5. Grim for RIM
The BlackBerry maker looked increasingly out of its depth through 2011 as the
mobile computing revolution was advanced by Apple, Google and Microsoft.
RIM lacks the enormous cash reserves of those rivals, its smartphones are
dated (with updates disastrously delayed), its tablet is a debacle and its
market share is plummeting. The spike in RIM’s low share price when it was
revealed that Amazon had toyed with an acquisition shows that in 2012 the
firm will be a major target.
The outlook if RIM tries to turn things around on its own, as its executives
say it will, is grim.
6. Google antitrust woes
In 2012 we’ll discover if Google is a dangerous monopoly. Its dominance of web
search is almost complete, but the question under consideration by the
European Commission is whether Google abuses that dominance to promote its
sideline businesses at the expense of rivals.
The evidence that has emerged so far doesn’t look great for Google. Eric
Schmidt is already making conciliatory noises in the hope of reaching a
settlement and avoiding the enormously costly and distracting legal quagmire
that so damaged Microsoft in the late 1990s.
